Update of "AssetClasses"

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Artifact ID: 4828fcfd6b2c6104b5040d8e620d736ddc9068ac19b1580b2f1bc19f0fc75647
Page Name:AssetClasses
Date: 2021-04-21 16:33:45
Original User: zie
Parent: 90cbc773b9ebadd32d6dd5b3c22228356aea004fc996bfb188f5ee1046c5a440 (diff)
Next 6378e14cc101980a2ae23c227f4da2e5bffacc37d56d373d08967054b0fa8e2e

Total Stock Market(VTI/VXUS and friends): Crash with the economy, roughly go up 4-6% real per year averaged over many many decades. Can be down 50% or more for a decade or so, but generally less than 5 years.

GOOD: When economies are not in trouble and crashing(so most of the time).

BAD: When economies are a disaster.

Expected Long Term Growth: 3 to 6% real

Small Cap Value(IJS and friends): expected to outperform TSM funds over many decades by about 1%, tends to come in brief, crazy spikes up. Otherwise will trail a TSM fund for quite long periods of time. value and small stocks tend to protect against inflation, since they have done better than large growth stocks in such periods as they are more highly leveraged, and their balance sheets benefit from the inflating away of their liabilities.


BAD: When growth stocks do really well.

Expected Growth: 5 to 7% real(1% more than TSM)

Utilities(FUTY, VPU and friends): Mostly follows TSM, a bit less risk and a bit less reward, considered better diversification than REIT's. They are meant to be very boring set of stocks that shouldn't fall as hard as TSM and should perform roughly the same. Climate Change may change their behaviour, but it's unknown at this time.


BAD: Climate change may alter their behaviour drastically, but somewhat doubtful since it is also a highly regulated industry.

Expected Growth: 4 to 5% real

REIT's(VNQ and friends): Can outperform TSM funds, bad when interest rates rise. Roughly 78% Correlated to the S&P500(VOO). The underlying Property(i.e. actual physical dirt) itself is expected to return 0% real. Overall, don't bother, it's uncompensated risk, per: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2965146

GOOD: when interest rates goes down and economy in good shape.

BAD: Interest rates go up.

Expected Growth: 3 to 6% real.

Bitcoin/Crypto Currencies: Nobody knows yet(very new and very volatile), so far it doesn't appear to behave like gold.

GOOD: Unknown, so... when it goes up.

BAD: Unknonw.. so... when it goes down.

Expected Growth: Unknown

Commodities(BCI and friends): Goes up with inflation, also goes up when economies crash, but otherwise a terrible investment. There's commodities and commodity futures. Expect commodity prices themselves to be around 0% real (if one defines inflation in terms of commodity prices, then this must be true).

GOOD: Unexpected inflation

BAD: Expected inflation happens.

Expected Growth: -4 to 0% real. (yes, it seems expected to usually return negative amounts of money.)

Gold(SGOL, IAU and friends): are expected to basically keep up with inflation and to be a "flight to safety". i.e. when stocks/economies crash, everyone rushes to buy gold and gold prices go up. Diversifies against stocks and bonds.

GOOD: When economies crash.

BAD: most every other time.

Expected Growth: 0% real

Currency Hedging: Good when the USD weakens(goes down, relative to other currencies), Will go down as USD Strengthens(goes up relative to other currencies). Otherwise no growth at all expected.

GOOD: when USD goes down.

BAD: when USD goes up.

Expected growth: -1 to 0% real

TIPS(LTPZ and friends): Great in falling interest rate environments(like all bonds/treasuries) also great with unexpected inflation. Otherwise slow, safe money with no expected growth.

GOOD: Unexpected Inflation, Falling Interest Rates.

BAD: Never.

Expected Growth: -1 to 0% Real. Certainly on the low end in the 2020 -> 2030 timeframe.

Bonds(BND and friends): slow stable growth.

GOOD: Falling interest rates, consistent inflation. Knowing exactly what you are buying(i.e. the income is FIXED both in time and $'s)

BAD: rising inflation, rising interest rates

Expected Growth: -1 to 3% Real. Certainly on the low end in the 2020 -> 2030 timeframe.