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Healthcare costs

$20k/yr per person + deductibles does not include long term care.

Long term care, women need it more often than men, avg cost $130k/yr avg term 2.5 years (325k/person)

HSA's if you qualify are the bees knees. Fidelity offers one of the best HSA's around.

Long Term care(LTC)

Note: This is per person, so if there are 2 of you, you might reasonably expect to double the numbers. Also, while $100k/yr is a reasonable rough guess, you should probably figure out what it costs in your local area, for the level of care you would want and use those #'s for your own math.

Personally I'm still aiming for 3yrs, but I might think about aiming for 5 years as a stretch goal.

with 0 day elimination(i.e. goes into effect the 1st day you need care) 50% of people that buy LTC insurance need it for up to 3 years.

35% use it when buying a 90-day Elimination Period.

source

When insurance companies started offering LTC insurance, they under-priced the risk, and it was a steal to purchase. They have since learned the error of their ways and perhaps tilted the other direction. What we know for sure is, it's no longer a simple, buy LTC and you are covered proposition. There are lots of exceptions and oddities surrounding what is and is not covered, be sure to fully explore and understand what it is you are buying, if you don't self-insure.